So, we see that as some of the drag that will come next year.
So, I would see two types of effects of the situation in Venezuela.
I think there we have to see, though, that the major oil producers have large buffers so they can id sequence the adjustment.If we look at Brazil and Venezuela, we have two very large countries that are actually contracting, Venezuela at a very high rate this year into next year.Then have a good record of taking in immigrants and they are doing a lot to assimilate them.However, the shocks, the external shocks that Peru has had to absorb have been serious and have been significant.We see this process going on now for the US dollar.
Clearly, we hope also that Lebanon will manage the difficult situation with the refugees, where the refugees account for one fourth of the population or even a bit more, and impose a heavy burden.
Now, the rebound initially is not quite as strong but will improve over 2016.
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In some, political instability is a dominant factor; there are overhangs of debt and overinvestment in commodity sectors and, in some countries, a loss of fiscal credibility.
They can do so by improved surveillance of the financial sector; more discouragement of foreign exchange-denominated borrowing, and Peru has made important advances in this area; greater encouragement of equity inflows, which is not unrelated to the governance environment, and finally, smart fiscal frameworks that.
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It is a growth outlook that is modest for the region, for the Caribbean as a whole.Maury will start with some opening remarks and then they will be happy to take your questions.I would like to hear what you think about the prospects for Central America, given the situation in the US, and we depend quite a lot on the US economy and commodities.So, the domestic demand component of growth in India looks resilient and strong, but because of the decline in external demand, the export outlook is a bit less rosy than we would have liked and that we were forecasting a few minutes ago.That being said, the.S., even though it is relatively closed, is subject to the influence of slowing global growth.Let me turn to our projections which I want to emphasize are what we view as the most likely outcomes, donna cerca uomo mexico d f but there are also downside risks and risks seem more tilted to the downside than they did just a few months ago.But, as I have said, we expect growth prospects to be at around 4 percent.Oil is crucial for the Venezuelan economy both in terms of fiscal revenues and exports.Given the extensive investment by Spanish corporates, investment in Latin America, particularly Brazil, I just wanted to ask you whether there is any danger that you are being overoptimistic about Spain, given the negative outlook for Latin America.That is the negative force sono una signora che cerca un uomo giovane, los angeles, ca that pushes down our growth forecast for India.As far as policies themselves are concerned, I think at the zero low bound, the ECB needs to use all options for policies to be effective, so both concerning asset purchases as well as deposit rates.So, for those commodity exporters, the effects of China shifting from manufacturing to services, the reduction in construction activity are really immense.